Had a friend an acquaintance of mine say that this wouldn't happen because "Trump hates China so he'll defend Taiwan" He'll also "support Israel so Iran won't get so uppity!" He also believes that whilst Ukraine is probably fucked, at least the war will be over.
And that's exactly it. Putin has literally made no secret that he wants to take back, by force, every former SSR he can't force into CSTO. The Baltics, Moldova, Poland, Finland probably. Then south to Georgia, Armenia, and who knows where it'll stop - maybe he'll be dumb enough (and live long enough) to try to start Afghanistan War #4.
That's why he needs Trump to sabotage and get the U.S. to leave NATO. If he gets the U.S. out of there and convince Hungary/ Germany to slowly turn against Poland.. the odds slowly keep changing