TLDR: you are apparently unaware that popular consumer smartphones like the Blackberry go back to 2002 and personal PCs like the Palm Pilot to the 90s.
That said, these attempts are better!
Many points you’ve written are not correct or based on incomplete information, but I appreciate the effort you made to take a clear stand with solid allegations.
It looks like you're ignoring the other hundred correct predictions and just want focus on the ones with one specific year, 2009, to more easily “debunk”.
Goalposts dramatically shifted, but I like the game, so let's do it.
Personal computers are available in a wide range of sizes and shapes, and are commonly embedded in clothing and jewelry such as wristwatches, rings, earrings and other body ornaments".[20]
You must be talking about the Apple watch, which was not the first wearable personal computer.
People had news headlines, weather, stock tickers, step counting and heart rate monitor watches in the 2000s.
Microsoft spot watch(2000)
Just a check...yea, 2000 was before 2009.
Also, the blackberry came out in 2002.
So that's a pass...cool.
The majority of reading is done on displays rather than paper, though paper documents (including print books) are still common.[21]
I see here you are pretending that only print books and e-book readers exist, rather than acknowledging the act of reading on a computer screen(forums, reviews, online news).
Or maybe you forgot about computers.
Paaass.
Intelligent roads and driverless cars are in use, mostly on highways. Local roads still require full human interaction.
Intelligent roads, of course, sensors, traffic/accident/emergency warnings, but driverless cars, uh-uh. That’s a partial fail! Local roads still did require full human interaction. I’ll take a half point. But you can have it if you don’t like it. You’ll see I don’t need it later on.
> People use personal computers the size of rings, pins, credit cards and books.
Obviously a pass, we had palm pilots in 1996, tens of millions of them and other derivations in just a few years, before even 2000. There were tons of tiny PCs in many shapes and sizes. Pocket PCs were popular and varied.
5.> Most portable computers do not have moving parts or keyboards.
Most portable computers did not have keyboards. Laptops okay, but truly portable PCS like palm pilots generally used a handwriting input system or stylus or the like.
Are you pretty young? This stuff was pretty popular.
Pass
6.> Though desktop PCs are still common for data storage, individuals primarily use portable devices for their computer-related tasks.[22][20]
Maybe I’m missing your point here. I can’t statistically prove this one any more than you have, but people already used their phones constantly before 2010, much more than people used PCs.
I think you’re conflating iphones with smartphones again.
Pass
7. > Personal worn computers provide monitoring of body functions, automated identity and directions for navigation.
As mentioned earlier, there were various devices that were step counters and monitored functions like heart rate. Not ubiquitous, but they were developed well before your specific cutoff date.
The Timex Datalink came out in 1994 and monitored steps, calories, as well as calendars, phone directory, that kind of stuff
Various straps measured heart rate like the Nike Sportband from 2006.
So pass
Okay! I think we’ve already matched your total number of correct predictions real quick simply by looking outside of Apple’s corporate history.
We’ve already corrected your errors or ignorance of certain earlier consumer products. Idk, should we do more?
Let’s double it, it’s obvious you just didn’t know about consumer tech products outside of the Apple bubble
> Personal worn computers provide monitoring of body functions, automated identity and directions for navigation.
GPS was very popular even before Apple, I’m not going to link to Garmin or Magellan or whatever. If you’re curious, you can read any history of modern consumer GPS devices, they start back in the early 90s.
Pass.
9.> Many devices offer high-speed network access via wireless technology. Which was an accurate prediction.[23][20]
You passed this one, which, yea, that would be tricky even only knowing Apple history to refute.
10. > "Most routine business transactions (purchases, travel, reservations) take place between a human and a virtual personality. Often, the virtual presentation includes an animated visual presence that looks like a human face."[24]
Hey a fail! Good for you. 85% correct(one partial) and one fail!
Well, wait. Actually, most routine business transactions did have virtual personalities(excited thank yous for purchases, suggestions to do this or that, but still! There were very few faces! Okay, well, that’s a quick bump to 90% correct predictions so far from the first ten points.
11. > Digital products such as books, songs, games, movies and software are typically acquired as files via a wireless network and have no physical object associated with them.[23]
Do you mean digital products derived from physical media or actual digital products? Because digital products not derived from physical products were common by 2009. Hm.
I’ll give you a half point, why not?
12. > Cables are disappearing. Computer peripherals use wireless communication.[20][24]
Doy.
Pass
13. > People can talk to their computer to give commands.
This was possible I don’t even know how long ago via accessibility on every copy of Windows. I went through a phase talking to my computer via the grid square thing. It was cool.
And very real.
Pass
> Computer displays built into eyeglasses for augmented reality are used.[20]
Okay, you really didn’t even look any of these up, AR glasses are old. They still weren’t cool, but they have been around a long time. Heck, that’s how they trained the astronauts in the 2000s.
Pass
You incorrectly claimed that “7 out of 41 were correct.”
Instead, we’ve found 11 correct and 3 portially correct in the first 14 items on your list.
So that’s 90% correct predictions.
You weren’t even close.
It seems like you are very unaware of fairly common technology before 2009.
But just because you didn’t know about it doesn’t mean it didn’t exist.
Shoot, you should look up the Blackberry. It was a revolutionary smartphone from 2002. It was basically apple before apple, you’d like it.
Re: Personal worn jewelry like watches, rings, pins and earrings will monitor body functions and have GPS
Yes gps devices existed before 1999. I had a CF GPS for my Nino. If you use those devices as what his intention was when he wrote about wearable tech, it's not a prediction so it is a fail.
The book the list of predictions is from was written in 1999.
He has written many books. He became famous because his earlier book was so accurate. Then Moore's law died which caused all his predictions for technology after 2005 to be very off because the huge compounding effect of Moore's law stopped.
Don't know how you're all so confused about this, but getting correct for a decade she's then technology changing didn't mean his prediction was incorrect.
It means he was correct, and then technology changed again.
Also, and this is going to blow your mind, Moore's law?
Not a prediction by kurzweil.
Fairly irrelevant except as a touchstone example given to tech-illiterates to understand how fast computing power increases
We've gone through the list and you've been wrong on every point. You showed a picture of 1989 style goggles as proof of a prediction in 1999 that there would be eyeglass ar by 2009.
You used a 1997 palm pilot with mechanical buttons as evidence for a 1999 prediction that by 2009 people would be using computers with no mechanical input.
You were unaware that Dragon Dictate with full voice recognition and control was sold in 1997. This was 2 years before Kurzweil predicted voice input would be available by 2009.
You didn't provide any example of highway self driving by 2009 or smart road sensors to enable that self driving. There were already basic road sensors in the early 90's and nothing new by 2009.
You would self evaluate yourself that 1x1 = 1 is correct just like Terrance Howard.
Re: people can talk to their computer to give commands
His claim was that it would be typical, not that it was possible. If you use your definition, it's a fail because Dragon Dictate was out in 1997. My Philips Nino from 1998 had voice recognition.
Claiming already existing technology will be invented in the future isn't a prediction. Voice input still isn't the dominant method of data input today.
TLDR: you are apparently unaware that popular consumer smartphones like the Blackberry go back to 2002 and personal PCs like the Palm Pilot to the 90s.
Do you have a reading or memory problem? I referenced Palm with cell data as the reason it's not a prediction in my first replies. Predicting a product that's already for sale isn't a prediction.
It's also the specific predictions like of no mechanical interface that Kurzweil had for those devices which was wrong until the iPhone became popular and dropped the physical buttons. Which I carefully wrote but you didn't read.
Finally, as I already said in my conclusion, even if you give Kurzweil a handicap of of 5 yrars, that only raises his percentage to 25%,.
So we're down to, what? 85% correct on the first chubby baker's dozen (that's 14. Cause he's chubby)?
I'm fine with 85% correct predictions, that seems correct and is way more concrete teeth the point I was making before, that he was right about "a lot" of stuff.
85 percent from your own list is way more substantive.
Re: Watch. You can't pick out 1 from a list of wrong and make that a win. Especially because he listed medical monitoring which the Early watches didn't do. Your attempt at listing an early smartwatch is also a fail because the Timex Datalink came out in 1994. Predicting a product that was for sale 5 years ago isn't a prediction.
MY GRAND PREDICTION: IN 2035 AN ELECTRIC CAR WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SALE.
But there's no half. Road sensors existed before 1999 so that's not a prediction and therefore a fail. Self driving on the highway didn't exist in 2009 and is therefore a fail. Both fails, 0 points.
What specific smart road device that was new between 1999 and 2009 are you referring to?
Because there were all sorts of smart road sensors in use the 1990's. In 1994 Palo Alto, the intersections had sensors so lights instantly turned green for you if you were the only person at the intersection. The on ramps to highways had smart sensors controlling lights to control merging traffic.
AR in any form isn't the specific prediction of AR built into eye glasses. AR in eye glasses wasn't available in 2009 to consumers. AR was invented in 1968 so it isn't a prediction.
The prediction is the claim that AR was in eyeglasses, not that it would exist. That's why it is a fail.
So you agree that the majority of people read on computers before 1999. Therefore Kurzweil's 1999 prediction wasn't what you claim it to mean.
Either he foresaw the future of smartphones, tablets and ebooks but was off by 5 years or he was an idiot who didn't know what was happening in the 1990's. In your ignorance you have argued that Kurzweil is an idiot.
Your reply will be "incorrect" because you have no ability to write a logical response.