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The average peasant (so all of us) has 4hp. A lucky d4 roll can instantly kill a peasant in game. An unlucky d4 roll (i.e. going off the table) can instantly kill a peasant (D&D player) irl.
I looked it up on Anydice and it would have a 31.25% chance of killing a random Commoner. Unless they get death saves, in which case it's only a 12.5% chance.
Did you account for nat 20 and 1s in that calculus?
I did not. But if you get a nat 20, it's not a d4, is it? I assume they were accounted for in the death saves, but I just looked up the answer for that part.
D20 to hit, D4 for damage
If my hit die rolls a 20, is the damage not critical, and therefore dealing the most I possibly can?
If we're counting that, how about proficiency bonus? And do we count the chance of the attack missing entirely?