By-election betting market probabilities (as of 1 July)

Uxbridge and South Ruislip - 20 July:

Selby and Ainsty - 20 July:

Somerton and Frome - 20 July:

Mid-Bedfordshire - tbc:

Rutherglen and Hamilton West - tbc:

Source: Betfair Exchange (mid odds, converted to probabilities).

Note: some of these markets aren't that liquid so the prices may add up to less than 100%.

6 comments

Love to see it, this government deserves to lose every single seat
I get to vote in the Selby & Ainsty by-election and honestly I'm shocked by these figures. It's been a very safe Tory seat for ever, barring a short new labour interlude.

If it swings this heavily to labour then it's a massive blow for the Tories and and strong indicator for a general election.

I'll believe it when it happens though
- Nigel Adams had a majority of 20,137 - I checked the records and there have only been five occasions in history when a larger majority has been overturned at a by-election, although two of those (the Lib Dem wins in Tiverton and Honiton, and North Shropshire) happened during this Parliament, and a third (the Lib Dem win in Richmond Park in 2016) was also against the current post-referendum Tory government. The Lib Dem win in Chesham and Amersham in 2021 was also by a large enough margin to overcome a majority of this size (the actual in that seat was only 16k, but Sarah Green turned that into an 8k Lib Dem majority).
  
  So there's plenty evidence of big Tory majorities being beaten in the last few years. The challenge for Labour though is that they've never succeeded on this scale - Labour have only ever once taken a seat with a 9k+ majority at a by-election, in Mid-Staffordshire over 30 years ago.
What are the significance of these particular constituencies?
- They are all having a by-election later in the month.
- They're the ones that have by-elections coming up.

6 comments