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  • The continuing resolution would suspend the U.S. debt ceiling for two years

    Hi there! I'm going to cover a lot hopefully quickly to give some insight on all of this.

    First I'll go to Public Law 118-5 This is the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023. You don't need to read the whole text, just jump on down to Sec. 401. It's on page 40 of that PDF that's linked. Note what (a) indicates.

    IN GENERAL.—Section 3101(b) of title 31, United States Code, shall not apply for the period beginning on the date of the enactment of this Act and ending on January 1, 2025.

    If anyone is wondering what 31 USC § 3101(b) says.

    The face amount of obligations issued under this chapter and the face amount of obligations whose principal and interest are guaranteed by the United States Government (except guaranteed obligations held by the Secretary of the Treasury) may not be more than $14,294,000,000,000, outstanding at one time ... blah blah blah blah blah

    This is the Debt Ceiling codified in law. So what PubL. 118-5 § 401 is stating is that the Debt Ceiling was suspended for two years and that expires on Jan. 1, 2025. President Musk Er, President Trump says it's not fair that President Biden got to suspended it for two years, but he won't.

    BUT! Republicans weren't exactly wild about the idea of doing so back then. The House Roll Call for HR 3746 was roll call 243 of the 1st Session of the 118th Congress. You can see 78 Republicans are no in that. In Roll call 516 of the 2nd Session of the 118th Congress, you can see 38 Republicans sticking to their guns on the debt ceiling. The big shift here is Democrats denying the win for Trump.

    I say all of this as foreshadowing. The 119th Session looks like we're going to have 220(R) to 215(D), I think we're safe to assume that the Democrats are just going to say NO to every budget the House tries to cook. That means a shift of 6 Republicans can toss any budget Musk Trump pitches into disarray. We already saw 7.5x more than that already balk at Trump's first pitch.

    Increasing the debt ceiling is wildly unpopular with Republicans. It was wildly unpopular when the Democrats did it in the 118th. McCarthy saw an upheaval in his own party form the Freedom Caucus. They began to protest bills and Democrats were absolutely elated to join in with them. Eventually McCarthy was able to reign them in but when McCarthy slipped again with Democrats it costed him his Speakership.

    Summary, this ain't good for Musk er Trump. Trump is already livid saying that the 38 who voted nay should be primaried next election. But I think this is just a taste of what's to come. I don't think King Trump has got a hold on this situation, sort of how like the Freedom Caucus became a thorn in his side the first year in in Trump's first term. Trump has got a lot of ambitious plans to reform the Government and Trump getting stuck in budgetary process is going to slow him down fast.

    This wasn't a good test run for the President-elect. If anything it showed that the Freedom Caucus has the cachet to demand things from the President-elect. And neither Trump nor Musk are very good at compromise. Going to be absolutely interesting to say the very least.