UK MoD: Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 14 June 2023. (twitter.com)

In the last two weeks, there has been an uptick in Russian tactical combat air sorties, especially over southern Ukraine.

This has almost certainly been in response to reports of increased Ukrainian offensive operations, as the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) attempt to support ground troops with air strikes.

Despite the uptick, VKS’ daily sortie rate remains much lower than the peak of up to 300 daily missions early in the war.

Since the start of the invasion, the south of Ukraine has often been more permissible for Russian air operations compared to other sectors of the front.

Over the last year, VKS has increased its use of air-to-surface weapons, such as glide bombs, which allow attack aircraft to remain well away from their targets.