We're experiencing the biggest dive in living standards in half a century β and a recession is looming
We're experiencing the biggest dive in living standards in half a century β and a recession is looming
Whatever today's economic data shows about how close Australia is to recession the truth is we are already experiencing the biggest dive in living standards in half a century β and have been for two years, writes Peter Martin.
What a wonderful headline to wake up to!
As far as I can tell we've been in a recession for a long time but nobody wants to admit it.
The reserve bank/etc are burying their heads in the sand and hiding behind external factors like the price of resources overseas that artificially inflate official figures... even though they have almost no bearing on the lives of people here in Australia.
I guess those exports are good for our superannuation but that's about it. As a young person with a family I'm not worried about how much money I will have when I retire - I'm worried about how to pay for the roof over my head right now... and unless something changes soon there's a good chance a lot of people will be draining their super to pay for housing. If too many people reach for that bandaid it will cause both short term and long term economic problems.
I'm not sure what needs to be done - but it seems to me like whatever it is, it's not going to happen if we ignore the problem.
If I were to pick an answer though, I'd probably go with some kind of severe tax on anyone who owns a home that they do not live in. Something high enough to force those people to sell and drive housing prices down to something affordable on a typical income. Use the boost in tax revenue to increase welfare funding across the board.
We have been in a per capita recession for ages. The govt avoids a technical recession with mass immigration.
Think of "the economy" as "rich people's yachts" next time you hear a politician or bobble headed reporter talking about something (like immigration) being good for the economy.
Immigration can be good for the economy. If itβs carefully controlled, planned and, used to increase the productive capacity of the nation. Right now it's being used to bludgeon the bargaining power of labour and inflate the housing bubble.
That period during 2020 was the first time in ages I'd felt positive about the economy. Due to the immigration tap being turned off demand in my industry increased and pay and conditions got better.
After Labor decided to open the immigration flood gates, the shoe is obviously on the other foot again as far as employer vs employee relationships go. Pay has flat lined and conditions like WFH are getting wound back. Thank you Labor for living up to your liberal liteβ’ tag.
Remind me, what else happened in 2020? Was there any particular reason why the 'immigration tap' was turned off?
Can't quite remember. I seem to recall WFH becoming important, and not being able to travel interstate or overseas easily. Also house prices dipped for a bit until the govt over corrected with a shower of money.
What was it that caused all that again?
Same here, they were almost at the stage of giving us a pay rise (we were essential workers, so they were allowed to not give us the yearly for some reason) as staff shortages were hitting the industry hard.
When factoring in inflation, I'm basically making about $1 more than when I started in my job 7 years ago , and that's with moving up to one of the more senior positions possible in the industry.
Americans be like "WOOLWORTHS?!?!" π
This is the best summary I could come up with:
But whatever Wednesday's data shows, the truth is we are already experiencing the biggest dive in living standards in half a century β and have been for two years.
Previous dips in household disposable income per capita have been accompanied by high unemployment, concentrating the pain in the unlucky group looking for work at the time.
Looked at through a longer-term lens (the longest the bureau's spreadsheets allow) the latest dive in real household disposable income per capita is the biggest in half a century.
This appears to date back to a 1974Β New York TimesΒ article, written by a US business cycle expert Julius Shiskin.
Three decades ago, after the release of theΒ September 1990Β national accounts on November 29, Treasurer Paul Keating declared they showed Australia in recession.
A "recession" evenΒ brieflyΒ appeared after revisions to the 2000 national accounts, under Prime Minister John Howard and Treasurer Peter Costello.
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