[Jay King @ The Athletic] What if the Celtics were in the market for another core piece?

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.world/post/1028959

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The Celtics continue to go through a slow start to the offseason, a wild card possibility looms.

What if — second apron be damned — they are still on the hunt for another core piece? The idea might seem crazy because of the long-term salary cap implications of such a move, but the team still controls most of its first-round picks moving forward (San Antonio could choose to swap with Boston in 2028) plus the Warriors’ 2024 first-round selection. That’s enough draft capital to put the Celtics in the mix for another blockbuster trade should Brad Stevens decide to put all of his chips on the table.

Does that sound like a long shot? Sure. The Celtics are already committed to a high-priced core that is only set to become more expensive over the next three seasons as possible supermax extensions for Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum kick in. The new collective bargaining agreement includes harsh punishments for teams that exceed the second apron. The Celtics would be headed for that level and beyond if they keep their current nucleus while adding another costly long-term piece. The impact of the CBA has already been evident early in the offseason. For better or worse, the new rules are more threatening than the old ones, at least when it comes to keeping great teams together or adding to them.

But what if the Celtics decide to toss caution into the Charles River? What if they decide now is the time to strike, while most of the league is afraid of putting a superteam together and the front office has a window to add another star as Tatum and Brown hit their primes? After falling short too many times deep in the playoffs, what if Stevens and the ownership group just go for it — really go for it?

Could the Celtics get involved in talks for Damian Lillard? Based on all of the reporting, including a great story by our own Sam Amick, Lillard has made it clear he wants to go to Miami. Still, the Blazers are under no obligation to send him where he wants. Joe Cronin’s statement on the situation, which said he intends to do “what’s best for the team,” suggests he won’t prioritize Lillard’s wish list above all else. Stars can often direct themselves where they want to go, but Cronin’s tone sounded like bad news for the Heat and an open invitation for other teams to load up better offers for Lillard. Even without putting Brown onto the table, the Celtics could offer a package built around Malcolm Brogdon and Robert Williams plus several picks and pick swaps. If that’s not enough, Boston could include Derrick White in the offer and try to recruit a third team to the trade since the Blazers already have two young guards to build around. That still might not be enough to win the sweepstakes, especially if Lillard is against joining Boston, as reporting from TNT’s Chris Haynes has suggested. But the Celtics could build a competitive offer.

That would go for other potential targets, too. The Raptors just lost Fred VanVleet to free agency. Could they consider moving Pascal Siakam or O.G. Anunoby, each of whom will enter the coming season on an expiring contract? James Harden wants out of Philadelphia. It’s only a matter of time before another star demands a trade, too. In the NBA, the next disgruntled player is always around the corner. Even if the aforementioned players don’t make sense for one reason or another, another big swing by Boston this summer would be fascinating. The Celtics have gone on deep playoff runs a number of times now, but have not pushed themselves over the top. The Kristaps Porziņģis trade shifted the team’s formula, but also came with substantial risk, such as his long injury history. Boston’s title window is open now and those rarely seem to last as long as people think.

The Celtics don’t need to cash in on their trade assets now. The finances would give them reason enough to avoid another big-name acquisition. They are already headed for a significant luxury tax bill for the coming season. If they sign Brown to a supermax extension, they would have about $180 million in salary committed for the 2024-25 season — and that’s the year before Tatum’s potential supermax extension would kick in. Adding another fat long-term salary like Lillard’s could leave Boston with an unsustainable roster moving forward. The new CBA will shovel more challenges on top of teams looking to spend their way to a championship. The idea of moving assets for a possible rental, like either of the Raptors wings, could convince the Celtics front office to pass for other reasons. And if Boston would consider including Brown in some sort of trade offer, well, that would come with its own set of issues. Using the Lillard situation just as an example, it’s easy to guess Brown wouldn’t want to commit to the Blazers long term, sapping much of his value to Portland. If the Celtics could find a third team for Brown, the exchange of him for Lillard would change the team’s entire identity. They have built very good teams over the last couple of years around a stable of perimeter players with enough size and versatility to be well-rounded on both sides of the court. Lillard would add in other areas but detract from that vision. Plus, he is 32, six years older than Brown.

With any version of a major trade, going all-in or close to it now would be a huge risk — and maybe an ill-advised one. Acquiring the wrong star can be destructive. Even the opportunity cost of future star pursuits should be considered. If the 76ers can only retrieve pennies on the dollar for Harden, will Joel Embiid eventually ask out too? If the Kyrie Irving re-signing ends badly in Dallas, will Luka Dončić demand a trade from the Mavericks one day? It could seem crazy now to think about the Celtics making a run at Embiid or Dončić, but front offices around the league see those situations heading for possible implosions. Tatum, heading toward his prime, should be a draw for other stars if the situation remains stable around him. Any big trade now for Boston could hinder one or prevent one later.

The Celtics could be mostly done with their roster for the coming season. They still have business to take care of with Brown, who is eligible to sign that supermax, and Grant Williams, who is a restricted free agent. Even if they plan to pass on keeping Williams, they are already near the second apron and could decide to just fill out the rest of the roster with veteran’s minimum contracts. They don’t necessarily need to make another big move. The odds are always against one, anyway.

But the Celtics do have enough assets to at least be thinking about one. If not now, then later. That’s all I’m saying.