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Idk the science of it but only what I have observed. I live somewhere where it is ~20°F in winter and ~85°F in the summer. In winter I avg around 21MPG and in the summer I avg 23MPG.
The difference in gas mileage is almost certainly due to winter blend fuel, which has a lower energy density than summer blend.
with such a cold weather, the engine is going to take a while to reach ideal operational temperature, so running un-efficiently for a while. MPG change will be more noticeable if your commutes are short
Yeah my commute to work is only 7 miles so that makes sense.
Also your tire pressure likely goes down, further hurting your mileage. Always remember to swap out the summer air in your tires for winter air.