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something like 80% reduction in transmission
reduces transmission by something like half
so it slows the spread by...preventing transmission of the virus
fucking fabulous job, my dude
It doesn't prevent transmission, it reduces transmission. You'll have similar total numbers of infected people, it just flattens the curve so people get sick slower.
I totally agree that wearing masks has its place, but it's not going to meaningfully reduce the spread, it's already endemic so you're likely going to get it regardless.
not going to meaningfully reduce the spread
merely reduces transmission by something like half
What definition are you using for "meaningfully"?
As in, move toward eradication/containment.
That's just... not happening. So if there's a big wave of COVID, you could delay getting it toward the end of the wave, but you'll probably get it. If you're vaxxed and boosted (and I am), symptoms will probably be lessened, but you'll probably still get it. Just like the common cold or the flu, you'll probably get it every year or two regardless of what you do (outside of total quarantine).
The good news is that it seems to be getting more mild, or at least that's my anecdotal experience. I first got COVID just before vaccines were available for my age bracket (I think spring of 2021), and I had a crazy fever, hacking cough, and body soreness and was essentially confined to my bed for two days, and had really nasty phlegm for weeks afterward. The second time was fall 2023 (got sick the last day of a cruise), and I felt dizzy (probably from the boat), mild to moderate fever, headache, runny nose, and low energy, but otherwise generally able to get around, and symptoms were largely gone within a week. Part of that is that I had the vaccine and previous natural immunity, but it was a completely different strain with different symptoms. I've heard similar things from co-workers and friends in my area (each had the 2020/2021 strain and then whatever went around last year).
It makes sense to take precautions when sick, around those who are sick, and when cases spike, but that's mostly to slow the spread to help out hospitals, but that also likely means it sticks around longer (i.e. instead of running out of steam in 2 months, it'll run for 6 months). So wearing masks everyday makes little sense unless you work in a cancer ward or something.
Really seems like a 50-80% is meaningful, but for whatever reason you're tying yourself in knots trying to justify not liking wearing a mask.
It's like saying there's no point in stopping smoking when you've been diagnosed with lung cancer because there's ONLY a 30-40% risk reduction of dying. Or maybe refusing to wash your hands because every cold or flu you've gotten has been 'not that bad'. Except in this case, the risk reduction is for everyone around you instead of just yourself.
Like, whatever you want to do bud, but you're not convincing anyone that basic hygiene while you're sick isn't beneficial.
Sure, 50-80% would be great if that's the average case. But it's not, that's the best case, and apples if the mask:
- is fresh
- fits properly
- is high quality
But if you're wearing a mask all day, it's not going to be fresh, will likely not fit properly the whole time, and probably not be very high quality. Most of the masks I saw at the height of COVID were crappy single-layer cloth masks with effectiveness in the single digits.
So your average mask is probably 5-25% effective on net if worn all day.
That's why I say we shouldn't be wearing masks all day, we should only wear them when it's important. That way, people are more likely to use a fresh mask and ensure it fits properly. I can put up with wearing a high quality mask for a few hours or days, but if you ask me to do that every single day, I'm going to get lazy, and lazy reduces effectiveness.
At the height of COVID, medical experts wanted to slow the spread to preserve hospital capacity, so even single digit effectiveness was fine. But these days, there's not much point to such low numbers of effectiveness, so mask-wearing shouldn't be an everyday thing, but instead something you do when it's especially important. Make it a normal thing, just not a routine.
Sure, washing your hands reduces risk of infection by 16-20%, but that's best case, and applies only when:
- You wash for at least 30 seconds
- You wash with the right kind of soap
- You do it after you use the bathroom and not before
So really it's probably 5-10% effective on average. That's why i say we shouldn't wash our hands all the time, only when you've actually touched shit."
That's a completely separate thing though.
Masks prevent one on one transmission. Washing your hands prevents many to many transmission. Surfaces are touched by more people than you'll directly interact with in a day. So even if it has a lower per-contact effectiveness, you have orders of magnitude more contact with contaminated surfaces than infected people.
The average mask wearer marginally reduces their transmission risk, especially if you consider that most people aren't infected. The average hand washer dramatically reduces their transmission risk because they're washing off other germs they've picked up (i.e. you don't need to be sick to spread disease through touch).
Masks prevent one on one transmission
I don't even need to read the rest of your comment, this is inane.
Do you understand how respiratory infections spread? Unless you're sneezing or coughing, it only really affects people in you immediate vicinity. Hence the one on one description.
Contact spread (e.g. what washing hands prevents) impacts anyone who touches the same surface. That's a much bigger pool of people than would be in my immediate vicinity.
It's not only about reducing the number of new infections, it's also about reducing the severity of infections.
If the total number of people still get infected by you transmitting half as many particles, they each only took in half as many particles. Their bodies have a greater chance of killing that lesser number of viruses before a serious reactions occurs compared to the greater number. So, even if the same number of people were to get sick, theyd get less sick. This is extra important for those who are immunocompromised because it will more easily mean the difference between pretty severe and hospitalized than for someone who is not immunocompromised (for whom the difference would be medium to minor)
And