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This is false. "Pay for it" or "Pirate it" are not the only 2 options available.
What are the other options then?
Not to consume it at all, obviously.
Your measurement for converting potential revenue into loss hinges on those being the only 2 options.
I have pointed that out as a possibility. Not consuming it at all, though, is not theft precisely because the person isn't consuming it.
In which case piracy only accounts for lost revenue if and only if the pirate would have 100%, guaranteed, purchased the content if a pirates copy was not available. So your calculation does not work.
if a pirates copy was not available.
This is exactly why my calculation does work. If a pirated copy was not available, they wouldn't be able to consume the media without paying for it.
But they also wouldn't have to pay for it. Which is the only way your calculation would work.