Reckon Australia probably need about a 350 lead to get into a winning position, but more-conservative Captain Pat would probably be more comfortable with something like 400. Either way, Australia well on top here after that massive England collapse.
Still plenty of time, and England don't look like they are willing (or able) to play for a draw. The only issue is the lack of Lyon, but peppering them with the short ball may well work again, and Australia have a few part time spinners that can occasionally take wickets.