North Atlantic marine heat wave more severe than predicted
North Atlantic marine heat wave more severe than predicted
Temperatures in parts of the North Atlantic Ocean are soaring off the charts, with an “exceptional” marine heat wave happening off the coasts of the United Kingdom and Ireland, sparking concerns about impacts on marine life.
Once again, we are experiencing the intensity of a climate event that far surpasses what was ever predicted under current conditions.
Marine heat waves (MHW) have increased 20-fold, according to this study. It is projected that such events, occurring once every hundreds to thousands of years under a pre-industrial climate, will occur at least every decade under 1.5ºC conditions and annually under 3.0ºC conditions.
However, the MHW currently underway in the North Atlantic is “very exceptional,” said Mika Rantanen, a researcher at the Finnish Meteorological Institute and is “way beyond the worst-case predictions for the changing climate of the region."
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Are we still sure the clathrate gun hasn't fired?
No, but I think it's still too early to tell. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty over the total inventory of gas hydrates. Temperatures at the bottom of the North Atlantic have not yet moved as dramatically as those at 500 meters or less. Also, methane clathrate deposits in shallower waters in that region are not particularly voluminous.
Just spitballing, but could this be an artifact of a dramatically slowing Atlantic meridional overturning circulation? Regardless, it looks like an exceptionally hot dry summer for most of Europe.