I don't like the clickbait title at all -- Mastodon's clearly going to survive, at least for the forseeable future, and it wouldn't surprise me if it outlives Xitter.
Still, Mastodon is struggling; most of the people who checkd it out in the November 2022 surge (or the smaller June 2023 surge) didn't stick around, and numbers have been steadily declining for the last year. The author makes some good points, and some of the comments are excellent.
I have an account that I use to read, but I've never posted on Mastodon. Decided to tweet after seeing this post and I see a privacy option called "Quiet Public - Fewer Algorithmic Fanfares".
Seriously, wtf is this? What does that even mean? If techie people like me can't figure out Mastodon then you can't expect the general public to do that. I'm not blaming this feature in particular, but Mastodon is quirky in all the wrong ways.