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Westminster Voting Intention: Labour: 43% (-1) | Conservatives: 28% (+3) | Lib Dems: 9% (n/c) | SNP: 3% (n/c) | Green: 6% (-1) | Reform UK: 8% (+1) | Via Opinium.

🚨 Latest poll for @ObserverUK. Labour lead at 15 points.

Labour: 43% (-1)

Conservatives: 28% (+3)

Lib Dems: 9% (n/c)

SNP: 3% (n/c)

Green: 6% (-1)

Reform UK: 8% (+1)

(Changes are from a poll released in the Observer last week)

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  • Flavible:

    Party Pred % Pred Seats
    CON 🌳 28.0% 199
    LAB 🌹 43.0% 365
    LD 🔶 9.0% 28
    REFUK ➡️ 8.0% 0
    Green 🌍 6.0% 1
    SNP 🎗️ 3% 33
    PC 💮 0.5% 3

    Electoral Calculus (2023 Boundaries'):

    Party 2019 Votes 2019 Seats Pred Votes Gains Losses Net Change Pred Seats
    CON 🌳 44.7% 375 28.0% 9 213 -204 172
    LAB 🌹 33.0% 198 43.0% 233 0 +233 430
    LIB 🔶 11.8% 8 9% 8 0 +8 16
    Reform ➡️ 2.1% 0 8% 0 0 +0 0
    Green 🌍 2.8% 1 6% 0 0 +0 1
    SNP 🎗️ 4.0% 48 3.0% 0 38 -38 10
    PlaidC 💮 0.5% 2 0.5% 1 1 +0 2
    Other ⬜️ 1.1% 0 2.5% 1 0 +1 1
    N.Ire ⬜️ - 18 - 0 0 +0 18

    Scotland EC Break-Down

    Con Lab Lib REF Green SNP
    28% 31% 3% 1% 3% 31%

    Don't believe the Scots numbers for a second in this poll; and they are having a real impact on the EC seat numbers.