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I am honestly curious how long it will take for lemmy to get its first million users. May we win or not. but still nice to see a chance and grow
If you trust the totals at https://the-federation.info/platform/73 -- then we're already past 2M users.
But if you look at "Active this month", then it is only 60k users. Lemmy counts activity differently than Reddit. Active means: made a comment or post, whereas Reddit counts any user you had the post in their feed as active.
So this month there's about 2M users, 2M comments, 600k posts, but only 60k of those users generated all of the content.
The only rule on Reddit was: 90% of the users were non-participating lurkers. It seems this might be accurate here too, or at least approximately.
There's also a lot of bots. There's like 20 servers with 70k "users" and 10 or less active users (making posts & comments). Doing the math, that should reduce the total by 1.4m. 600,000 real users is still pretty great though.
Win?
I think in this scenario “winning” would be replacing reddit as the primary link aggregator and online forum. But even if that does happen eventually, it’ll be slow and gradual
Yeah it’s gonna take a while to replace reddit, and initially This whole Fediverse and instances concept gets a bit confusing and overwhelming to start with. I mean eventually you start to get a hang of it if you really put in effort and I believe in a lot of cases that learning curve is what will stop a lot of users from joining here. But if that hurdle is crossed a lot of people will eventually move here.
Personally I think it only seems confusing and overwhelming because everyone is saying that is. If someone can understand email, then they should be able to understand Lemmy
While it might seem that way to someone who is using lemmy or mastodon or any of the other fediverse apps. To a new user it will be overwhelming and almost everyone has the same first question “Do I have to create an account on all instances?” To which a lot of people familiar with the fediverse would say “No” but the caveat being you might have to create an account on more than one instance coz maybe your current instance was blocked by the other instance that you might be trying to access. It took me a day of reading exploring and understanding to get this far. So while the mail example maybe pretty simple and easy to understand it’s still not exactly as simple as that. A better example would be if you have a Twitter account you can access Gmail, YouTube, Instagram and Facebook with a single account if the other apps (instances) allow it. Also with that said there can be multiple variants of the Twitter app (instance), say Twitter 1 , Twitter 2 , Twitter 3 each with their own Communities and rules. They may or may not be able to communicate with each other depending on the moderation and community rules. So you see how even the simple examples slowly start to get complex.
I’d argue youre the one making it complex. Because really for 99% of user the answer is still just no. defederalization isnt super likely and instances like lemmy.world have enough communities and instances that are federalized for the average user to not notice shit. Its exactly complex as you want it to be. Just tell most people to sign up to a lemmy.world or lemmy.ml and from their perspective it’ll just work
A lot of Defedralization is already happening .....and in most cases smaller instances will defedralize with bigger instances. That is because larger instance allow anyone to sign up so this makes it harder for smaller instances to moderate and if your arbitrary metric of 99% of users "do not give a shit" stands true then there isn't really even a point to really join coz u are not taking advantage of what the fediverse really has to offer. The fact remains that it is complex , I am not making it complex nor is anyone on purpose trying to make it complex. Even if people were do do exacty as you say and only sign up on "lemmy.world or lemmy.ml" in most cases even that right now is not easy coz these instances are currently experiencing high traffic and are giving errors ...There aren't any good polished apps (at least on ios don't know about android but it is a pretty similar situation) . So all and all anyone coming from the web2.0 apps will not have the easy onboarding they previously had. You are trying to oversimplify it which goes to destroy what the fediverse is trying to build that no instance is less or more important , while you dont need to sign up for every instance in existance you should still look into go explore new instances that cater to your specific needs and interests and then consider creating an account there ...and since account can in most cases be migrated you can later on only have one account once you have found all the communities you wanted to join.