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A lot of people have already left
RedditFuggit and moved to Fedi as we have seen over the past couple of weeks.And those who are still sitting there, they are either in a dilemma and unable to make up their minds, or they live under a seriously big rock and have no idea what's going on with this API saga, and the Third Party Apps stopping to work on July 1 will be a nasty surprise for them.
In short, it's unlikely that they will overcome the surprise/dilemma in just a day and jump over to Lemmy immediately.
The Fuggit --> Lemmy migration will continue as it is today, but I don't think there will be a catastrophic spike on July 1.
And many will just move to oficial app
I have to agree with this. It'd be nice to get another spike like we had last time, but I really doubt it. Sure, people may still come after the 30th, but not like the previous spike we had before.
There may not be as much of a user spike, but I would think there will be a content spike. How much Reddit content is posted using 3rd party apps, and how many of those content creators are going to swap to the official app vs utilizing alternatives such as Lemmy for future postings?
I hope so. More good content would be nice. Still wishing some of the smaller subs I was in reddit migrates to lemmy. And fair point about the TPA users, although I can imagine many of them already moved to lemmy previously.
I think the apps no longer working will be the impetus for many to actually search up options. They almost certainly know about the API saga, but not necessarily about Lemmy or the fediverse. Until now, many likely held onto hope that this shit would turn around, and they won't have been considering a plan B.
There is totally content that I miss being over here but it's very much niche small communities that just don't have a real motivation to move or individual content curators that do it for fun and aren't being impacted by the changes.