Considering about 33% of a set is rares, yeah, it is a big change. Looking at draft, that's a 96% chance to open one more rare, and 83% chance to open two. If my math is right, that's 13 more rares in a pod on average. (Don't math while waking up) The correct figure would be ~16 extra rares per pod.
Regarding the specific chances, considering they detailed the odds for the List spot but not the wildcards, I think it's more reasonable to assume chances are equal to the percentage of rares in a given set, which can vary dramatically, but I believe it's usually about 33%.
As for the math, I definitely went about it wrong (I was using 1-pn for some reason, and I also did that wrong somehow). The right result would be closer to 16 rares per pod.
I think it’s more reasonable to assume chances are equal to the percentage of rares in a given set, which can vary dramatically, but I believe it’s usually about 33%.
Why would they not adjust for rarity in this slot? They do it in all the other slots - it seems like a big leap to think that any specific common that can appear in this slot is equally as likely as any specific mythic.
Sorry for the double post, but I thought you might be interested to see this.
MaRo has posted the odds. So looks like 8.88 packs per draft will have 2 rares, 0.96 packs per draft will have 3 rares, and <0.24 packs per draft will have 4 rares, for resulting in roughly (8.88 + 0.96*2 + 0.24*3 =) 11.52 extra rares per draft.